Every September, the big forecasting houses publish their predictions for the U.S. holiday shopping season — and 2026's batch tells a consistent story: record spending, a squeezed calendar, and sharper-than-ever discounts if you time it right. Here's what Adobe, Mastercard, and Deloitte are projecting, and what the numbers mean for your gift list.
Adobe's forecast, published September 28, 2026, projects U.S. online sales of $275.1 billion between November 1 and December 31, 2026 — up 6.7% year over year, making it the largest online holiday season ever. The estimate is built on analysis of more than a trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.
Mastercard's Economics Institute lands in similar territory from a different angle: U.S. retail sales (excluding auto and gas) from November 1 to December 24 are expected to grow 5.5% year over year — the strongest holiday growth since 2022. Deloitte, measuring a slightly longer window (November 2026 through January 2027), projects $1.70–1.71 trillion in total holiday retail sales, up 4.0–4.8% (compared with 4.1% growth in 2025), with e-commerce at $316.1–318.9 billion, up 7.5–8.4%.
One honest caveat from Mastercard: about half of the projected growth is price-driven — meaning part of the increase reflects higher prices, not more goods changing hands. That makes deal-hunting less optional than ever.
Thanksgiving falls late this year, which compresses the traditional shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Cyber Monday itself falls in November this year. The practical consequence: less time between the big discount days and the shipping cutoff.
Shoppers seem to already know this. A September 2026 RetailMeNot survey of 1,183 shoppers found that 41% start their holiday shopping before October, and 58% now treat Black Friday as a multi-week event rather than a single day. If you're buying for a long list, the crowd's instinct is right — front-load your buying.
Budget-wise, the survey puts average spending at $589 on gifts and $435 on self-purchases. If you're splitting your budget across categories, knowing where the deepest discounts land (see below) helps you allocate.
Here's the part of the forecast that matters most for gift buyers. Adobe projects Cyber Monday (November 30, 2026) at $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year over year — the biggest single online shopping day ever. But Black Friday is growing faster: $12.9 billion, up 9.2% year over year, with the deepest discounts of the season on TVs, apparel, and appliances. Thanksgiving itself is projected at $6.9 billion, up 8.5%.
Cyber Week overall — Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday — is expected to total $47.5 billion, up 7.4%, accounting for 17.3% of the season's online spend.
Translation for your gift list:
A record 63% of online spending on Thanksgiving is expected to happen via mobile, and mobile's share for the full season is projected at 57.4% (up from 56.4% last year). Retailers know where the traffic is, and many time flash deals and app-exclusive offers for the phone in your pocket — so download your key retailers' apps now, enable notifications, and make sure payment info and shipping addresses are saved before Thanksgiving.
While online is expected to grow 11% year over year (Mastercard), don't count out physical retail: in-store sales are projected to grow 3.6% — the strongest physical-retail holiday growth in four years. For gift buyers, that means stores will be competitive on price and experience, and in-store-only doorbusters still exist. It's also your fallback for anything that can't risk shipping delays in a compressed season.
One of the more interesting numbers in Adobe's report: traffic from AI services to U.S. retail sites is expected to jump 130% year over year. In a July survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of those who used AI for shopping said it made them more confident, and 69% said they were less likely to return items. Whether you use an AI shopping assistant or not, the takeaway is simple: check a second price source before you buy anything over $50 — the compressed calendar leaves less time to catch a price drop later.
Distilling three forecasts and a survey into action:
The forecasts agree on the direction: 2026 will be the biggest online holiday season on record, in a shorter window, with the sharpest deals concentrated on fewer days. Plan early, buy on the right day, and let your phone do the work.
On Black Friday — Adobe projects it at $12.9 billion (up 9.2% year over year, the fastest growth of the big days) with the season's deepest discounts on TVs, apparel, and appliances. Cyber Monday (November 30) will be bigger overall at $15.1 billion, but it's growing more slowly at 6.2%.
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in U.S. online sales from November 1 to December 31, up 6.7% year over year — a record. Mastercard projects total retail (excluding auto and gas) up 5.5% from November 1 to December 24, the strongest growth since 2022. Deloitte projects $1.70–1.71 trillion for November 2026–January 2027, up 4.0–4.8%.
Thanksgiving falls late this year, shrinking the stretch between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and Cyber Monday falls in November. Less time between the big discount days and shipping cutoffs means less room to wait for a better price — a reason 41% of shoppers surveyed start buying before October.
A record 63% of online spending on Thanksgiving is expected via mobile, and 57.4% of full-season online spend (up from 56.4% last year). Retailers time flash deals and app-exclusive offers for mobile shoppers, so prepared phones have an edge.
Adobe expects AI-service traffic to U.S. retail sites to rise 130% year over year. In a July survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of those who used AI for shopping said it made them more confident, and 69% said they were less likely to return items.
Published October 1, 2026